James Brobin

Software Engineer @ Laboratory For Atmospheric and Space Physics
87 karmaJoined Working (0-5 years)

Comments
25

Ah, thanks! That first link is perfect! I probably should have searched through the forum a bit more before making this post.

Add, thanks for the recommendations. I always perpetually feel I need to learn more about economics, but I never get around to reading about it.

I would probably add Thinking In Systems by Donella H. Meadows as another peripheral book since it tackles systems thinking, which can be applied to virtually any EA-related subject.

I see. Yeah, that point makes a lot of sense. According to this Gallup study, the typical desired number of children for a US family has stabilized at 2.6 for the past thirty years. Assuming this number isn't too affected by immigration and is likely to stay the same with a similar economic situation (and that economic situation persists), your conclusion seems pretty strong to me.

In response to your first question, I'm pretty concerned that artificial wombs would not be very high impact from a population perspective.

If artificial wombs were very expensive, I suspect only very wealthy people would make use of them, and it would not solve the fertility crisis.

If artificial wombs were very cheap, I suspect the average person would have barely any more children. This is because the primary drivers for the current fertility crisis seem to also motivate people to want to have less children in general.

According to Our World in Data, the primary drivers of the fertility crisis are:

It seems like the first and second trend will continue for the foreseeable future, and the third trend will continue in the near-time but reverse in the long-term. Notably, the first trend has to do with women's ability to make their own decisions. It seems that, in general, if women can choose how many children to have, they usually only have two or three.

Additionally, according a recent 80,000 Hours interview (which was with a non-expert), one of the major drivers of the fertility crisis is simply that people have more interesting things to do with their time than having children. This trend also seems like it will only continue.

I also suspect that if artificial wombs were very cheap, some fanatical religious groups would have extraordinarily large amounts of offspring, which could be generally harmful to the long-term future.

On the other hand though, I suspect that if there were great widespread economic prosperity and people were no longer required to work (such as could be the case if AGI comes about), the average person may have far more children, which, from a total view of population ethics, would be very beneficial.

The "Risks from artificial intelligence (AI)" section could benefit from being updated. The majority of posts were written over three years ago, and AI is advancing so quickly that I think more recent posts would be more salient.

I think specifically the 80,000 Hours article "The case for AGI by 2030" could be worth including.

Good idea! I'll look into that! Very sunny from what I've ever heard.

Oh, gotcha! I appreciate the thoughts. Yeah, Oxford seems pretty cool, although I really don't think I'd get used to weather, lol.

That's an interesting suggestion! I would not have thought of that!

Ah, thanks! That's exactly what I was looking for!

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