Crosspost of my blog post

(I think this is a very important article, so I’d appreciate it if you could like and share it!)

There is a simple way to vastly increase your lifetime charitable giving: rather than donating immediately, put your money in an investment account for a few decades, and then donate the money after it’s grown a lot.

The stock market grows at about 6.68% per year, adjusted for inflation. If you put money in the stock market, and then wait 50 years, you’ll have 25 times as much money in the end as the beginning. If you wait 80 years, you’ll have over 170 times as much money. This means that you can massively increase your charitable impact by investing money and then waiting to donate it, rather than immediately donating it.

There are some downsides to waiting. Some charities might need the money now. It probably makes sense, if you’re planning to give to the Shrimp Welfare Project (which you should be), to give now rather than later, as the stunners that they give out are reused year after year. Similarly, now looks like a particularly important turning point for the insects, so giving now is probably a good idea. And if you’re predicting a huge AI boom, there might be no time like the present.

But in most cases, you should probably wait to give! I’m 21. If we assume I live to be 85 years old, then if I invest my money and donate it when I die, I can give almost 63 times as much. That’s a staggering increase in total money donated.

Now, it’s true that there are some downsides to donating waiting:

  1. It might get harder to do good as time passes.
  2. On some issues, now might be a particularly important time.
  3. By giving now, you might be able to convince others to do the same.
  4. If you never donate money, but just keep a ton of money in an investment portfolio, when you get old, it will be easy to convince yourself to keep the money rather than donate it.

These are okay reasons to wait, but I think the fact that your money will grow so much probably outweighs it. And there are other reasons to wait. When you’re older, you’ll be wiser. You’ll have learned more. You might have found new, good places to donate. If I had donated money five years ago, rather than waiting, my money wouldn’t have gone to the shrimp!

For this reason, I think it makes sense to take a middle position. You should donate some amount now. But you should put more money in an investment account that’s specifically for donating. You should reserve it specifically to be donated, even mentally treating it as already donated. I’d recommend giving maybe 1% of your income away and then putting another 9% aside to be donated later.

Why donate 1% immediately? There’s huge risk of value drift—that when you get old, you will spend the money rather than donating it. By donating some amount every year, you make charity a big part of your life, and this increases the odds that you’ll donate later. As an analogy, if you want to become a professional Magic The Gathering player after you retire, you should play somewhat regularly in the mean-time, so that you commit to being the sort of person who will follow through later.

You should consider investing to donate very seriously. It’s a way to potentially increase your charitable impact by a factor of well above 10. You’ll have more total donations if you give away 1% of your money and invest it than if you give away 10% immediately. There really are hundred dollar bills lying on the sidewalk.

They say that exponential growth is the most powerful force in the universe. This is false—the Busy Beaver function grows faster! But it’s clear that exponential growth is a powerful force; just a few percent annual growth leads any quantity to massively increase over long time scales. You can harness that incredibly powerful force for good, and save lots of extra lives. Remember, it only costs about 5,000 dollars to save a person’s life, so 10xing your charitable impact could potentially save several hundred people. So go do that!

 

 

 


 

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I think you missed the best arguments for giving now vs giving later

  1. If you give now, you get the compounding returns of impact, which I think are likely to be larger than the compounding returns of capital. If you donate money now to say, SWP, they might take that money and buy a stunner which will be used to stun shrimp before their death for, 50 years while your money waits in the stock market. Furthermore, you are building up the industries practices that will influence other decisionsand compound as well. What is that rate of return? I can't give you an IRR but I think there's good reason to think this is quite high. This same
  2. Donating is a skill, one that needs to be developed over time. I agree that, in theory, one could make play money donations to improve over time. I just don't think it works that way in practice. You need to make donations to get better at donating
  3. I think you should expect a continued and growing influx of money into the EA movement. Even with the backsliding of FTX, the amount of money available to EA causes has still been growing year over year (I can't remember where I saw this, but something like 60%/year growth). This suggests that money that can be donated now is particularly valuable.
  4. Money is but one resource for making impact. Unfortunately, we can't simply go to the store with our dollars and buy impact at a fixed price, whenever we want. We have to pair it with other resources, ones that need to be spent across time. If the SWPs of the future are simply wired 25x the money in 50 years, they can't simply turn that into impact for you. They need to have negotiations with companies, get buy-in, etc., which takes time and must be worked on continuously.
  5. At what point do you stop compounding and donate? Why stop at death? 

I think impact compounding is less reliable than stock market returns. The first stunner might be much more impactful (in shaping norms) than the 1000th. The impact of AI safety orgs remain to be seen. Meanwhile, that 6-7% in stock returns is somewhat consistent (though I think it’s closer to 5% in real terms. Also, I’m assuming you would donate the assets directly to avoid tax). 

I’m also unsure of what skill can only be learned by the practice of donating as opposed to, for example, reading grant reports to understand funders’ reasoning.  I suppose you learn more about yourself and how you think about giving, and you develop better habits, but that isn’t a skill. 

However, I think now is generally better than later and agree that death is an arbitrary cash-in point. 
 

I agree that the question of when to give is very important, and that it's often underappreciated how strong of a reason compound interest is for giving later. This seems like a subject people in EA rediscover every few years and then largely forget about--it's a shame that the intricacies of the arguments back and forth get lost in the process, but good to see that people stay interested in thinking this through.

If it's helpful at all, here's a relatively comprehensive writeup of my own thoughts on the subject from three years ago (and an even older talk and podcast, for the more audio-visually inclined; and a fund some people at Founders Pledge set up for those interested in committing to long-term saving). You can also find various objections to (and elaborations on) this material from others on the EA Forum at that time, many of them excellent. I do agree with the common response that the prospect of near-term transformative AI strengthens the case for giving sooner, though not quite as straightforwardly or extremely as it might seem at first, and in fact I'm currently in the middle of writing up some thoughts on this front. But in the meantime, let me just pitch checking out the old commentary. : )

Thanks, yes I think I fired this post off too quickly without taking time to read deeper analysis of it.  I'll try to give your post a read when I get the chance. 

Why donate 1% immediately? There’s huge risk of value drift—that when you get old, you will spend the money rather than donating it. By donating some amount every year, you make charity a big part of your life, and this increases the odds that you’ll donate later. 

 

I don't care for this argument when I see it. Waiting to donate gives you option value. The opposite is also true - if you give now and your older self's values drift and you look back and regret giving so much to EA causes early in life, isn't that also bad?  

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